Saturday, January 25, 2020

Essence Of Decision A Review Politics Essay

Essence Of Decision A Review Politics Essay Graham Allisons Essence of Decision offered alternative conceptual models on foreign policy decision making and a specific discussion on the Cuban missile crisis; and has been one of the influential book in history of foreign policy analysis. It gives a significant contribution to political science study, as it has been heavily cited in most international relations textbook and also discussed by foreign policy analysts. However, despite the models strong influence in foreign policy study, it has been heavily criticised by foreign policy analysts about its utility and value in decision making analysis. In Essence of Decision, Allison proposes three different lenses that offers a multi-level analysis rather than a regular solely system-level to analyse foreign policy decision making. His first model, Unitary Government Model or Rational Actor Model (RAM) explain government as a black box, thus the internal actors have the same goals and opinion on how to achieve the goal. On the other hand, model II and model III will open the black box and discuss at two different things inside the box and later known as bureaucratic politics model. Model II or Organizational Process Model looks at the key organizational or agencies with their own function, mission and structure. Lastly, Model III or Governmental Politics Model will focus on key individual decision makers and the political bargaining process among them. Nonetheless, Allisons conceptual framework has been not only highly praised by foreign policy analysts, but also has been much criticised since its first edition. Number of criticism has risen regarding Allisons conceptual framework, ranging from its originality until the problem of evidences that have been used by Allison in explaining the Cuban Missile Crises. Conford and Horelick, for example, argue that Allisons model is not wholly original work, rather than it is developed from previous study. Moreover, another group of criticism have questioned the account of the Cuban Missile Crises that explained by Allison. Despite these two criticisms, there are number of criticism that will be discussed in the following section. By looking at number of criticism about Allisons model, there is a big question about the usefulness of the model in foreign policy decision making process analysis. This essay aims to evaluate the utility of Allisons conceptual policy in foreign policy decision making. This essay will also critically discuss each of the three models by looking from some perspectives. Moreover, taking into account that this essay relies on Allisons Essence of Decision, this essay will also look at the decision making process regarding the Cuban Missile Crisis. Allisons Conceptual Framework Model I: The Rational Actor (RAM) Model I is the basic yet critical conceptual framework that mostly utilized in foreign policy decision making analysis. RAM is the best model in explaining and predicting of an individual behaviour, as well as purpose generalization in states action. The model reduces the organizational and governmental political complications by looking at government as unified actor.  [1]  Thus, a complete-informed government -regarded as black box- will process information to optimize rational action. The internal structure within decision making process will calculate the potential pro and con and later rank all the options by their chance to succeed.  [2]   Its feature of being easy to utilize, RAM could be useful when a state has limited or even no available information about the enemy. Therefore, since it does not require information to analyse a case, RAM would be very suits in a crisis situation. It would safe more time since a state does not necessary do a complex evaluation about their enemy. Lastly, RAM that stresses interaction among states, will immediately produce prudent decision after considering the pro and con. Its simplicity in analysing a case makes RAM one of the popular methods in foreign policy decision making process. On the other side, some foreign policy analysts argue that in the real foreign policy formation, number of external and individual interest factor will eventually give a big impact. Moreover, RAM tends to ignore a large state with complex bureaucratic nature that has various kinds of departments with their own different political and ideological perspectives.  [3]  Therefore, along with the argument that intra-national factors are very importantà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦yet critical when one is concerned with planning policy, Allison has proposed so-called, Bureaucratic Politics Model.  [4]   Model II: Organizational Process Difficulties will arise when the case that are going to be examined is not the behaviour of an individual or a state with simple bureaucracy model, but the behaviour of one organization or government with complex structure inside. Therefore, Allison provides two alternative conceptual frameworks that will open up the black box to evaluate internal structure inside the government, which is later known as Model II and Model III. Model II or Organizational Process Model focuses on the existing organization and their standard operating procedures (SOP) for gaining information, defining possible option and implementing programme.  [5]  Each organization has an agreement for both its mission and function. Afterward, series of program are developed to carry out those missions. In defining feasible option, Model II argues that it is restricted based on SOP that will enhance performance and efficiency. Moreover, Model II is not optimizing rational actor, as model I does, but rather, it is satisfying decision making actors. Its account that foreign policy outcomes are derive from bureaucratic programs, routines and SOP, makes number of advantage from this model. It emphasizes the important domestic political influences on process of foreign policy decision making that sometimes missed out from RAM. Therefore, model II reminds the analysts that the policy was formed not only by a high level decision-maker, but sometimes it is formed by organization.  [6]   Nevertheless, a set of criticism has arisen in the utility of model II. Its emphasis on organisational culture may ill-serve higher level officials and finally can lead to impair the analysts understanding of organizations and their behaviour.  [7]  Even though this kind of problem does not occur for most of the time, but we can take it as a consideration of the effectiveness of the model. Model III: Governmental Politics Governmental politics model or government bargaining model focuses on key individual decision makers with their great influence in deciding on organizational actor. Moreover, the model assumes that decision makers have different perceptions, priorities, commitments and also organizational positions (where you stand depends on where you sit). Therefore, model III assumes that governmental actions are the result of a political bargaining process among key players. Furthermore, bargaining and negotiation processes will result in satisfying rather than optimizing decision making result. It obviously explained because personal ambition of key actor may diverge from public policy position and may lead to personal power considerations when making decision. Between Allisons three conceptual frameworks, model III adds important detail about domestic politics that obviously, cannot be found in model I. In addition, model III not only explains the roles of key individuals, but it also explains why individuals are working at contrary purposes to the interest of the government as a whole. Lastly, model III gives us explanation why policy sometimes appears to be irrational if we look it from a unitary government perspective. Nevertheless, model III also received many critics, especially on the complexity of the model. It is focus on individual key actor that makes it difficult to study and analyse. Moreover, it requires too many variables, some variable are unknown and it is hard to apply for other countries with unclear bureaucratic politics inside. Criticism toward Allisons conceptual framework Allisons conceptual framework has been attacked by number of criticism, varying from the originality of the model, different interpretation of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the US political system, and also methodological criticism. As Stephen D. Krasner has argued that Allisons model à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦is misleading, dangerous, and compelling.  [8]  Therefore, in this section, number of criticism of Allisons model will be critically discussed and assessed. Some foreign policy analysts, such as, Cornford, Horelick, Ball and Art claimed that Allison did not present a pure brand new approach to analysing foreign policy process; but rather it just development from previous theories. Conford has claimed that organisational process mode is previously done by writers such as, Simon, March and Simon, Cyert and March.  [9]  Furthermore, Conford has claimed that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Model IIIà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦is pure Neustadt.  [10]  Horelick et al.  [11]  supported Confords argument by suggesting that the bureaucratic model is closely related to previous work done by Kremlinologists.  [12]  Ball and Art  [13]  also mentioned names of analyst that originally make the bureaucratic policy model, such as Huntington, Hilsman, Schilling, and Neustadt.  [14]   Nevertheless, Allison has dedicated a section in his book to acknowledge previous scholars that become his foundation in developing his methods. He is fully aware that he utilizes and developed earlier scholars work as he mentioned in his book, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦this encourages much repackaging of existing theoriesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Ã‚  [15]  Therefore, he identifies a group of writers such as March and Simon, Barnard, Cyert and Simon and so on for foundation of model II.  [16]  Furthermore, Allison also acknowledged his intellectual debt to previous scholars that related to model III paradigm,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦model III variety have attracted increasing attention since 1960à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦ the publication of Presidential Power by Richard E. Neustadt.  [17]  Hence, we could argue that Allisons originality does not lie in his model, but rather in his approach to apply his models consistently to one particular case study, the Cuban Missile Crisis.  [18]   Another criticism can be seen from methodological perspective; numbers of similarities between model II and model III have shaped ambiguity between those two models. In many occasions, some foreign analysts will combine model II and model III to analyse a case study, including Allison himself. In his article with Halperin, Allison combines those two models and become one major model the bureaucratic politics paradigm- as an alternative model to RAM.  [19]  As Conford argues that the three models is not totally incommensurable model to analyse foreign policy making process.  [20]  Therefore, even though Allison distinguishes three kinds of model in foreign policy analysis, those models is not easily separable in their actual application. In bureaucratic politics model, decision is not arise from one unitary actor, but through some bargaining between organisation structures with their own agenda. Model II and model III have identical characteristics that enable them to be grouped as bureaucratic politics model. The two models are similar in a sense that both models focus on departments and organizations inside the decision maker; however, it is slightly different, in a sense that, if model II will reach a decision through Standard Operation Program, model III will make a decision through bargaining between various players within government. Despite the insignificant difference between those models, they are usually combined as the bureaucratic politics model.  [21]   However, Caldwell has raised bureaucratic politics models major problem regarding the use of evidence and data. The model requires detailed data that hardly available in term of quantity and quality. In addition, Caldwell argued that there is huge possibility for analyst to imposing the model on the evidence rather than testing the model against it. Therefore, bureaucratic politics model has significant problem in analysing the data and evidence, since previous empirical problems show that data was made to fit the model.  [22]   Allisons alternative model has also been argued that it eliminated decision-makers responsibility toward the policy. The strong criticism has risen from Steel and Krasner, which argued that no one, even the President, holds responsibility of the policy as the outcome from bargaining process among bureaucratic groups. As Steel argued that, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦where everyone is responsible for a decision, no one is responsible.  [23]  The same argument also comes from Krusnet who argued that bureaucratic politic eliminates the importance of election: à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦Elections are a farce not because the people suffer from false consciousness, but because public officials are impotent, enmeshed in a bureaucracy so large that the actions of government are not responsive to their will.  [24]  In contrast, Smith argues that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦this criticism is only valid to the extent to which the President is unable to get his wishes carried out.  [25]  Therefore, the criticism from Ste el and Kranser is not applicable for all cases and need to be modified. Furthermore, following previous criticism, there is criticism about Allisons model utility to other countries. Even though Allison clearly points out his intention to present two additional frameworks to other countries foreign policy analysis (not only limited to the US and Soviet Unions policy making)  [26]  , a group of writers has argued the inability of the model to analyse foreign policy behaviour in other countries, to be precise, un-industrialized countries. As Hill has noted that there is a growing consensusà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦over the inapplicability of the insights of Allison, et al. to foreign policy-making inside less modernised states.  [27]  Migdal has also argued that the model cannot be applied to the countries that do not have stability of organizational structure, routine, and even bargaining process.  [28]  Moreover, Brenner also argues that Allisons model is not a universal model and à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦more distinctive in the United States than elsewhere.  [ 29]  Despite all criticisms regarding its utility to other countries, Weil has proved, in fact, the model could be utilised in the North Vietnamese foreign policy analysis. As Weil notes that à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦examining North Vietnamese foreign policy decision making from a governmental politics perspective complements understanding gained from a rational actor analysis.  [30]   Nevertheless, analists argued that the model is not even applicable to the Soviet Union, although the Soviet Union foreign policy has been heavily discussed in Essence of Decision. It is not only because the model requires more specific information than is available, but also as Dawisha has noted that the bureaucracy in some countries (e.g. the Soviet Union) is fundamentally different from its position in the United States because the persistent influence of the Communist Party.  [31]  Therefore, there is a doubt about the utility of Allisons model in other countries, as Wagner has pointed out, à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦the extension of Allisons model III to other countries may be a less straightforward enterprise than he implies.  [32]   Singapores defence posture change in the early 1980s In the early 1980s, Singapore announces a major important change in its defence policy, from a defensively deterrent strategy (poisonous shrimp) to a more actively deterrent strategy (known as the porcupine). In an article done by Pak Shun Ng, he applies Allisons model to analyse Singapores domestic decision making process. Pak Shun Ng treats Singapore as unitary rational actor to utilizing model I (RAM); the military organisations as the unit of analysis for model II; lastly, the military and political party leadership (including senior military leaders and civilian leaders of Singapores ruling party, the Peoples Action Party (PAP)) as units of analysis for model III.  [33]  The article argues that model II and model III provide the most reasonable explanation of the change in Singapores defence position in the 1980s; while model I has failed to fully explain the change. Model II first reveals the appropriate development of both Singapores military capability and military planni ng ability. Furthermore, model III then prove details how the Singapore Armed Force (SAF) could announce the change convincingly to improve its stature among Singaporeans and foreigners by persuasive them that Singapore has appropriate capability to defend and survive any potential threat.  [34]  Even though the article heavily honours the utility of Allisons model, but it still proposes modification of the models in order to be able to analyse a decision making process in a small and non-western states under absence of crisis condition. Furthermore, the case study of Singapores policy making shows the evidence of model II and III complete each other and make one alternative model against RAM, namely, the bureaucratic politic model. Therefore, it supports the criticism that previously discussed that Allisons models, especially model II and III, have strong similarities and hardly separate. The utility of Allisons model also can be tested in the US foreign policy in Iran hostage crisis in 1979. The bureaucratic politics model is applicable in analysing the decision making process under President Carter administration. The key group in Carters government consisted of number individual who have important position in the executive branch, and also political outsiders that rarely well known, yet have close personal relations to the President. Within the key group that were known as the Georgia mafia, there are two closest advisors for the President; the chief of staff, Hamilton Jordan and Carters press secretary, Jody Powell. Even though these two advisors are not familiar in politic and foreign policy process, they were loyal and intelligent. When sixty American were taken hostage at the American embassy in Iran on 4 November 1979, the initial response from Carter is criticised to be quite slow. On 11 November, the US gave economy sanction by initiating embargo of Iranian oil. While the economy sanction was undertaken, there were ongoing debates about the next step dealing with the crisis. There were two major options; a commando raid to rescue hostages and outright air strikes and military blockades.  [35]  Here we can clearly see how each faction in the government has their own argument to propose to the President is clearly explained by Allisons bureaucratic politics model. A strong debate was occurred between Secretary of State, Cyrus Vance; National Security Advisor, Zbigniew Brzenzinsky and Carters inner circle, Powell and Jordan. Vance was explicitly being in opposition to any military action after considering that American allies would not tolerate such behaviour. Therefore, he believed that the national security of the US could be maintained without endangering the lives of sixty American citizens.  [36]  On the other side, Brzezinsky strongly opposed military measure as the best means to protect Americas vital interests.  [37]  Moreover, the argument was supported by the director of the CIA, Stanfield Turner, after considering the CIAs best estimates that 60 percent of the hostages could be killed as a result of very complex rescue process. These two faction also argued that they are responsible for the national security, roughly 250 million Americans, and they couldnt simply compromised for the sake of sixty hostages. The final faction c ame from Carters inner circle, including Powell and Jordan, who were concern about the impact of Iran hostage crisis on upcoming election in 1981. The President concurred Vances opinion that a negotiated settlement would be the best for maintaining both national interest and national security. As the response of Carters decision, he received public support, which is important for the upcoming election. However, after considering the effectiveness of the plan, Powell and Jordan opposed the President for tough action against Iranians, again, in order to win the election. In the end, with strong pressure from some faction and absence of Vance in decision making process at the time, Carter called for an immediate military rescues on April 11. The military rescue plan ended in failure with crash of number of helicopters and planes; and killing eight US servicemen. Finally, in 1981s election, Reagan came into power and selesai lah sudah This illustrates the absence of one faction who opposes one specific argument could impact the decision making process as a whole.

Friday, January 17, 2020

Analysis of Subways internal and external environments Essay

This essay will analyse the organisation Subway’s internal and external environments and their impacts on this organisation. This will include a swot analysis on resources and capabilities which are a part of the internal environment and on customers, suppliers, competitors, pressure groups, economic, political, technological, natural environment and emerging trends in the external environment. â€Å"A SWOT Analysis is a useful technique for understanding your Strengths and Weaknesses, and for identifying both the Opportunities open to you and the Threats you face† MindTools. com (2013). Internal environment Resources: 1. The Workforce Strengths – Subway restaurants operate out of over 36,000 locations in 99 different countries. Subway is an equal opportunity employer, where every employee can be assured that they will be treated with respect and not be discriminated or harassed for any reason. They continuously provide employees with training and encouragement through teamwork, against shared goals and benchmarks and to be accountable for their actions. Weaknesses – Many subway employees are younger generations and are particularly inexperienced in the workplace. This can be a weakness for subway as this younger group of employees have other priorities such as school/university which can make it difficult when creating the roster for shifts and being unskilled can cause delays in service and not properly organised meals going to the customers. Opportunities – Subway has the opportunity to train their unskilled employees in a way that suits them and is in line with the organisation’s goals. Threats – Subway’s direct competition offer similar workplace conditions and environments which can be a threat to Subway by these companies attracting higher skilled workers in the industry away from Subway. 2. Capital Availability Strengths – As Subway is operated as franchises, the overall company has a large amount of capital coming in from the franchises. Subway (2013) states â€Å"The SUBWAY ® chain’s start up costs are exceptionally low for a franchise of its size and stature. Total investment will depend on many factors, including location, rent, outlet size and equipment†. Weaknesses – There are many economic conditions, such as unemployment that contribute to weaknesses concerning Subway’s capital. Combine these economic issues with poor marketing strategies and it can affect the capital dramatically. For example the new â€Å"$5 Combo Deal† that they are offering, has resulted in a decrease in sales, as the average customer is now spending less money per purchase. Opportunities – Start-up costs of the franchises is low compared to similar organisations, it makes Subway more appealing to potential owners, there for encouraging more people to purchase a Subway franchise which will increase the capital of the overall company. Threats – Economic issues such as the Global Financial Crisis, unemployment and inflation can cause a threat to subway from opening more stores, which in turn affects their available capital. Capabilities: 1. Marketing Strengths – â€Å"Eat Fresh, Live Green† is Subway’s commitment to making a positive impact in all that they do. This is very appealing to consumers, as Subway’s beliefs and values are in line with theirs. Subway restaurants are also navigating the world of online social media to bring their message closer to consumers. Subway is experienced in international marketing. Weaknesses – Subway restaurants lack the interior design and quality that would welcome everyone to stay and feel more comfortable than in the competitor’s restaurants Opportunities – Subway employs superior marketing techniques and promotional strategies to attract and grow their customer base. The most successful Subway’s promotional offer was to offer footlongs for only $5. Threats – Subway runs the risk of decreasing their client base if they fail to meet consumers’ wants and needs if continuous innovation and new processes are not being developed and used. 2. Production Strengths – Restaurants are clean and maintained. Preparation goes into getting the food ready to be served so quickly before, after and during store hours – veggies need to be washed, diced, sliced and stored. All of this preparation contributes to the productivity of the store. Without these steps, the restaurant would not run efficiently. Weaknesses – Old equipment that is no longer working at its best and staff not being available to work can be weaknesses in the production process. Opportunities – Focusing their sustainability initiatives on energy efficiency, water & resource conservation, waste reduction, sustainable sourcing and supply chain management. Threats – Equipment failure and power outages are a huge threat to Subway concerning production. If either of these occur the Subway store would not be able to operate or produce any products. 3. Research and Development Strengths – Develops and test markets the food that they serve, making sure it is of high standards and quality. Weaknesses – The markets are constantly changing and they cannot always source produce from the same suppliers. Research needs to be done constantly and they do not always have the resources to do so, Opportunities – Do customer surveys in different demographic areas to provide what those areas are in demand for. Threats – Data recorded may be incorrect depending on what type of information they require and can come from unreliable sources. 4. Financial Management Strengths – Subway’s finance team is responsible for tracking, organizing and reporting on all financial activities and storing this data for future reference. This data can help them find better ways of financially running the organisation. Weaknesses – Variables in costs for produce depending on time of year and certain promotions. Variables in labour as employees come and go, more staff required for busy times of the year (holidays). Opportunities – With the support they provide and the low start-up costs they offer with their franchises, they can attract more buyers and expand the Subway chain even further. Threats – Price fluctuations, for example oil, can dramatically threaten Subway’s financials as consumers will have lower disposable incomes which will stop them from freely spending their money. 5. Information Systems Strengths – Subway has a loyalty card system which they use to gather information on their customers. Each card has a unique 16-digit identification number. The card enables Subway to collect data on its customers from its point-of-sale (POS) terminals to its CRM applications. Weaknesses – The first loyalty card they developed was easily copied. Opportunities – To introduce this card throughout all Subway stores so they can collect a larger amount of data for their information system. Threats – Without security measures in place with their loyalty cards people could produce fraudulent cards to receive rewards from the company. External Environment Customers Strengths – Subway already has a strong client base because of their fresh and more nutritious products. These factors appeal to the customers. Weaknesses – Customers do not always feel like healthy options and on occasions want a greasy alternative that Subway does not provide. Opportunities – Subway provides customers with the opportunity to provide feedback on their products and service. By doing this the customers have the opportunity to influence Subway’s decisions with how to do things better and to discover what products sell the best and what the customers like about the service they receive. Threats – Poor customer service is a major threat to any business that deals with customers. Subway, without its customers, would not be able to operate. Another threat is if negative feedback from customers is spread around then this could potentially stop customers from returning Suppliers Strengths – Subway sources as much produce as possible locally. They try to support their locally communities as much as possible. They source this produce from suppliers that share their commitment to social responsibility and sustainability. Weaknesses – Some suppliers can be unreliable and not provide stock when ordered. Opportunities – There are more opportunities to source more locally grown products and help support local businesses grow and stay in the market. Threats – The supplier may not have enough produce/stock to provide Subway at certain times and the supplier may think that the price they are receiving for their products is too low, causing them to refuse supply. Competitors Strengths – Largest fast food restaurant chain in the world by the number of outlets. Currently the Subway operates over 38,181 restaurants in 99 countries, more than McDonald’s or any other fast food chain operator. Weaknesses – Majority of Subway’s competitors offer cheaper meals than what Subway can, based on the price they purchase their products at. Opportunities – Subway has many competitors, so they need to stay innovative and keep their products on top of the others that are available. They have the opportunity to promote their products as healthy options and deep-fryer free compared to their competitors to encourage more sales. Threats – McDonald’s, Hungry Jacks and KFC are some of subways main competitors. These competitors all offer family meal deals and cheap snack sizes on their menu’s which makes them more appealing to consumers. Pressure Groups Strengths – Subway takes input from pressure groups and community members so they can improve the operations, products and service. Weaknesses – Subway cannot rely on the information that pressure groups provide them with as it does not always represent the majority. Opportunities – Pressure groups can be a huge opportunity for Subway to listen to their opinions and issues with the organisation and how the pressure groups think Subway can resolve these issues and develop their company to be more socially responsible. Threats – Pressure groups however can be a threat as they don’t always have the majorities input on these issues and are misrepresenting the whole community when the push their ideas and beliefs on Subway which can make other customers stop returning to purchase goods from them. Economic Strengths – Subway opens stores when the economy is doing well. By doing this they establish their presence in the demographic and build up a good amount of returning consumers. Weaknesses – Subway needs to have a contingency plan in place for when the economy in their area decreases. If they do not, potentially they will reduce in the amounts of sale because they cannot control consumers disposable incomes. Opportunities – When the economy is strong, consumers have higher disposable incomes. This give Subway the opportunity to slightly increase prices and promote their products more as consumers are more willing to spend money. Threats – Not all geographic areas have the same amount of disposable income and Subway needs to take this into consideration. In these areas Subway may need to offer special promotions or lower their prices to cater for this otherwise they will lose sales. Political Strengths – Subway follows and adheres to government legislation including the Fair Trading Act and policies relating to environmental conservation. Weaknesses – Each state has different standards and restrictions in place which means not every Subway store can fully operate the same. Opportunities – With these policies, it creates a safer work environment at Subway and helps them become innovative on how they can reduce their environmental footprint. Threats – If Subway does not follow these regulations on how they operate, produce and promote their products they can be fined hefty amounts of money or even closed down. Technological Strengths – As a global brand, Subway continues to make strides in sustainable packaging, and waste management as well as look for more efficient equipment and operational practices Weaknesses – Not all technology is good just because it is new. Subway needs to research thoroughly before investing in new technology to make sure that it operates with their commitments to a cleaner, healthier environment. Opportunities – To obtain newer technology and apply it in aspects of their business would be a big opportunity for Subway. Threats – Some local markets may not be ready for new technologies and don’t have a full understanding of how they work, therefore consumers not trusting or believing in the new technologies. Natural Environment Strengths – An organization cannot survive without the support of its environment. Subway takes in resources such as labor, money, and raw materials from outside its boundaries in the natural environment. Weaknesses – Subway cannot control the climate or the weather in the areas that have stores operating in. Opportunities – There are opportunities that arise depending on the weather. In the hotter season Subway can promote their salads more for a meal that is more refreshing in the heat. In the cooler seasons they should promote there â€Å"subs† toasted for something to warm the belly. Threats – Depending on locations some areas may experience unpredictable natural events like cyclones or tornados. These can cause a dramatic threat to Subway stores in areas where events like this occur as there can be damage to roads and buildings, no electricity and no stock or fresh produce from suppliers. Emerging Trends Strengths – Subway franchises are involved with the communities surrounding them so they are always aware of the current and emerging trends happening in their locations. Weaknesses – Subway cannot follow all emerging trends as there are too many and it would be too costly for them to do so. Opportunities – To expand their online ordering (catering for meetings/offices) to be made available for individuals to order and then pick it up, or start a delivery service. Threats – Often trends don’t last for long periods of time, making it costly for Subway. Conclusion As you can see from the above analysis, there are many different factors, both internal and external, that effect the organisation, Subway. There are many internal and external forces that Subway needs to consider and stay on top of so they do not fail. References MindTools. com, (2013). SWOT Analysis. Retrieved on 11 September 2013 from http://www. mindtools. com/pages/article/newTMC_05. htm#sthash. 86tx07Tn. dpuf SUBWAY (2013). Corporate Opportunities. Retrieved on 13 September 2013 from http://www. subway. com. au/info/franchise_information/corporate_opportunities/ Unknown Publisher, (2012). Evaluating the External Environment. Retrieved on 13 September 2013 from http://2012books. lardbucket. org/books/strategic-management-evaluation-and-execution/s07-evaluating-the-external-enviro. html

Thursday, January 9, 2020

Classes During Turbulent Times Essay Example Pdf - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 4 Words: 1154 Downloads: 7 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Research paper Did you like this example? It is widely observed by markets participants that during periods of high market volatility, correlations between asset prices can differ substantially from those seen in period of low market volatility. For example, correlations between US Equities represented by SP 500 and energy commodities as crude oil, gasoline, natural gas; were substantially lower prior the bull market started in 2003. Such differences in correlations among asset classes could highly affect portfolio returns and reduce the benefits of diversification, the time mostly desired by investors. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Classes During Turbulent Times Essay Example Pdf" essay for you Create order The change in correlations had been attributed either to structural breaks in the underlying distribution of returns or to contagion across markets that occurs only during periods of market turbulence. This will be examined in order the above mentioned practitioners observations hold, and whether are statistically significant. Motivation The reasons for this research are mainly based on the empirical observations of market participants. With this as a starting point I would like to examine whether these observations stand and whether are statistically significant. Moreover, another reason for this research is that I am interested in asset management and I would like to deepen my knowledge regarding issues that are being faced by professional asset managers; and the implications in their investment decision making procedure. Furthermore, during the recent financial crisis, starting on January 2008 there was noticed by investors that the so called decoupling between European and Asian emerging stock markets is not that robust as they were thinking. The rational that the growth rate of European, Asian and South American emerging markets have broadened and deepened to the point that they no longer depend on the United States economy for growth, leaving them insulated from a severe slowdown there. Faith in the concept h as generated strong outperformance for stocks outside the United States. However, in January 2008, as fears of recession mounted in the United States, stocks declined heavily. Contrary to what the supporters of the decoupling theory would have expected, the losses were greater outside the United States, with the worst experienced in emerging markets. Literature Review Loretan and English (2000), extend previous empirical studies, allowing for robustly estimated, time-varying coe ¬Ãƒâ€ Ã¢â‚¬â„¢cients. However, there are no existing studies of aggregated credit spreads, stocks and stock market volatility in which the conditional covariance structure is considered. Therefore their  ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ndings o ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬er some of the  ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ rst insights regarding the variance and correlation structure of this data set. They found evidence of strongly varying conditional variances and correlations, with dependencies increasing after the outbreak of the  ¬Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ nancial crisis. This knowledge opens the door to better decision tools in various areas, such as asset pricing, portfolio selection, and risk management. Their conclusion is in line with the empirical suggestions and my expected results. Another study of Chong and Miffre (2008); this studied the correlations among 25 different commodities and 7 global sto ck indices and 6 bond indices, found that the correlations between SP500 and 19 of the 25 examined commodities decreased during periods of increased volatility. This is a very interesting finding as it suggests that assets managers and investors can really benefit from diversification and its benefits as during turbulent times commodities and stock indices tend to correlate less. This does not apply to all the commodities examined. For example for crude oil, live cattle, unleaded gas and coffee the correlation with SP amplified in periods of turmoil. Also even for the rest commodities that the correlations decrease, this does not apply to the same degree. More specifically for the precious metals as gold, silver and platinum the correlations with SP500 drop much more than the rest commodities in turbulent times. Description of Methodology and Data The data will be collected from WRDS Database and will comprise SP500 Index, Russell 2000, Eurostoxx 50, selected US Treasury Notes and Bonds, commodity indexes like CRB Commodity Index, as well as specific commodity future contracts. Moreover I plan to include emerging markets indices which are indicative of high growth emerging markets like the CSI 300 index for Chinese companies, the Bovespa index for Brazilian companies and the NIFTY index representing the biggest Indian companies. Finally I would also include in my study certain currency pairs, as the EUR/USD, the CAD/USD and the USD/JPY. The reason for this decision, to include specific currency pairs and consider them as an asset class; is that the past years more and more institutional investors and many sovereign funds invested in currencies other than their country of origin in order to benefit from fluctuations in exchange rates or for diversification. Second reason for the selection of currency pairs as a separate asset class is the very high volatility experienced the past decade even between major currencies like EUR, USD, GBP, CHF, and JPY. The frequency of the data will be weekly for the time period starting on January 1994 till May 2011. In order to avoid the weekend effect, thin trading effect and maturity of future contract effect, Wednesdays settlement prices will be considered as the closing weekly prices. Expected Empirical Results After the conclusion of the study, I expect to obtain quantitative results about in what extent change the correlations of different asset classes, which have mentioned above, with each other and whether these respective changes are statistically significant from low to high volatile periods. Also I expect to examine whether certain asset managers practices of the market really hold, through statistical significance tests. These are widely practices of asset market participants. One usually stated, is that when stocks decline then US Government Bonds and gold prices increase, as investors look for a safe heaven. In addition I expect to clarify whether these market tendencies intensify, decline or remain stable from crisis to crisis as the time passes. I expect to find that commodities prices are not that strongly correlated with major market indices and tend to retain their independence even in crisis periods. But this holds in different degree and not for all the commodities. Furt hermore, I expect correlations between commodities and stock indices to change significant because of asset management trends. I expect to find less correlation during previous crises compared to the recent financial crisis where many commodities were perceived as a separate immunized from market fluctuations, asset class, resulting a bubble in certain commodities as well. Finally I expect that certain currency pairs are more correlated with the stock indices. For instance USD is considered to be a safe heaven and during periods of market turmoil it is less correlated with the stock markets or even negatively correlated as the stock markets decline its values compared to other currencies increases as investors desire to hold more cash on hand and especially US dollars. In addition to that I expect the CAD / USD to be more correlated with the stock markets the period from 2003 till 2008 where the advance in stock markets was partly driven from good performing mining companies, which were performing well partly because of high commodities prices.

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

MARSHALL Surname Meaning and Family History

The Marshall surname derives from mare, meaning (horse) servant, possibly meaning a wide variety of related occupations including farrier, groom, and horse doctor. Marshall is among the top 100 surnames in many English speaking countries, including New Zealand, Scotland, England and Australia. It also ranks as the 125th most common surname in the United States. Surname Origin: English Alternate Surname Spellings:  MARSHAL, MARSHALE Famous People with the MARSHALLSurname Barry Marshall  - Australian physician and Nobel Prize winnerBrandon Marshall -  NFL wide receiverThurgood Marshall  - Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United StatesWalter Marshall - British nuclear physicistLester Marshall - English professional footballerJohn Marshall - 4th Chief Justice of the United States Where is the MARSHALLSurname Most Common? Surname distribution from Forebears  indicates the Marshall surname is most prevalent in the United States, based on percentage of population. It is most common in New Zealand, where it ranks 51st in the nation, followed by Scotland (57th), England (70th) and Australia (74th). WorldNames PublicProfiler indicates a similar distribution, with the greatest percentage of individuals named Lang in Austria, followed by Germany, Hungary, Switzerland and Luxembourg. Lange is most common in Germany, especially northern Germany, followed by Denmark.   Genealogy Resources for the Surname MARSHALL Meanings of Common English  SurnamesUncover the meaning of your English  last name with this free guide to the meanings and origins of common English surnames. Marshall  Family Crest - Its Not What You ThinkContrary to what you may hear, there is no such thing as a Marshall  family crest or coat of arms for the Marshall surname.  Coats of arms are granted to individuals, not families, and may rightfully be used only by the uninterrupted male line descendants of the person to whom the coat of arms was originally granted. The Marshall  Surname  DNA ProjectIndividuals with the Marshall  surname  are invited to participate in this group DNA project in an attempt to learn more about Marshall family origins. The website includes information on the project, the research done to date, and instructions on how to participate. MARSHALL  Family Genealogy ForumThis free message board is focused on descendants of Marshall  ancestors around the world. FamilySearch - MARSHALL  GenealogyExplore over 4.3  million results from digitized  historical records and lineage-linked family trees related to the Marshall surname on this free website hosted by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. MARSHALL  Surname Mailing ListFree mailing list for researchers of the Marshall  surname and its variations includes subscription details and a searchable archives of past messages. DistantCousin.com - MARSHALL  Genealogy Family HistoryExplore free databases and genealogy links for the last name Marshall. GeneaNet - Marshall  RecordsGeneaNet includes archival records, family trees, and other resources for individuals with the Marshall  surname, with a concentration on records and families from France and other European countries. The Marshall  Genealogy and Family Tree PageBrowse genealogy records and links to genealogical and historical records for individuals with the Marshall  surname from the website of Genealogy Today.----------------------- References: Surname Meanings Origins Cottle, Basil.  Penguin Dictionary of Surnames. Baltimore, MD: Penguin Books, 1967. Dorward, David.  Scottish Surnames. Collins Celtic (Pocket edition), 1998. Fucilla, Joseph.  Our Italian Surnames. Genealogical Publishing Company, 2003. Hanks, Patrick and Flavia Hodges.  A Dictionary of Surnames. Oxford University Press, 1989. Hanks, Patrick.  Dictionary of American Family Names. Oxford University Press, 2003. Reaney, P.H.  A Dictionary of English Surnames. Oxford University Press, 1997. Smith, Elsdon C.  American Surnames. Genealogical Publishing Company, 1997. Back toGlossary of Surname Meanings Origins